Post by jupee on Apr 5, 2024 6:00:50 GMT -6
Well, well, well. The part of the season all non-tanking teams care for the most - play-off's - is at ITP doors. While first round in East looks quite boring (at least I personally hope so!), I see Western matchups being as juicy as ever. Lets take a closer look to each pair.
Los Angeles Clippers - Phoenix Suns
(regular season 3:1)
Very interesting matchup having in mind that few seasons back those teams had labels of playoff underperformers (Clippers) and overperformers (Suns). In 2008 Suns went to league finals from #4 seed, 2009 - conference finals from #8. However, lately Phoenix was unable to win more than one game in first round. Meanwhile Clippers lost their first round twice as 4th seed, before making to the 2nd round in 2011 (but loosing there, again as higher seed).
What is more, each team have 3 centers covering positions from C to SF, so there will be a lot of big dudes on the court. What separates Clippers and Suns - perimeter. While team from Arizona have Michael Carter-Williams, whos skills and athleticism is obviously fading away, and Terrell Brandon is still developing, Los Angeles relies on Dwyane Wade and Jason Williams, who are both in their prime. I see this as decisive factor.
My prediction: Clippers 4:2 Suns
Dallas Mavericks - Utah Jazz
(regular season 3:1)
Despite very mediocre performance in the regular season, I do think both teams have enough talent to go all the way to league finals. But one of them will drop here.
Mavs have more depth, while Jazz - star power. And the biggest star in the series is definitely All-League Frist Team SF Shawn Marion, averaging 33 and 9. However, funny thing, the only game Jazz won against Mavericks in the regular season was when Marion was not playing due to injury.
Also, do not let slow Jazz offence fool you, they attack quite efficiently, especially in the perimeter. On the other hand, Utah have some problems with defence (5th worst result in both oFG% and o3P%) which can successfully be exploited by Dallas.
Important note - Dallas main center Tiago Splitter is out for series and this could change the final outcome.
My prediction: Mavericks 3:4 Jazz
Minnesota Timberwolves - Golden State Warriors
(regular season 1:3)
If we check regular season standings and some main team statistics, we would say yeah, Timberwolves should proceed to the next round. But why then GSW was able to beat T-Wolves three times this season already? Last years playoffs already confirmed how little regular season records means, however, lets make a little research of how these two teams are matched against each other.
Iverson - Petrovic produces almost 50 PPG, meanwhile Nightingale - Nick Young backcourt is faulty defensively. As well as their backup Jared Jordan. On the other side of the court, GSW have good defenders like former DPOY Soprano, McDyess, and of course AI. Their biggest "hole" is Jim Jackson at SF, however, luckily for Warriors, he is matched against extremely passive in offence Kevin Garnett Jr.
So despite Minnesota being higher seed, I can see Iverson and Soprano taking their team to the Western semi-finals.
My prediction: Timberwolves 2:4 Warriors
Sacramento Kings - Seattle Sonics
(regular season 2:2)
Two solid, but a bit different teams here. Sonics relies mostly on their decent defensive numbers, as well as Giannis and David West when attacking. West, by the way, is the only non-guard player who managed to get Player of the Week award this season. Sonics is also the most aggressive team with 34.8 Free Throws per game.
Kings offence is better at creating quality shots (.466% FG) and more spread. However, SF position stands out here as well, since Josh Howard is having a season of his life, averaging over 24 PPG - and that is, surprisingly, more than his much better paid opponent Antetokounmpo.
This one can go either way. But since all 4 regular season duels between Seattle and Sacramento were won by home team, this advantage by Kings could be the critical one.
My prediction: Kings 4:2 Sonics
Los Angeles Clippers - Phoenix Suns
(regular season 3:1)
Very interesting matchup having in mind that few seasons back those teams had labels of playoff underperformers (Clippers) and overperformers (Suns). In 2008 Suns went to league finals from #4 seed, 2009 - conference finals from #8. However, lately Phoenix was unable to win more than one game in first round. Meanwhile Clippers lost their first round twice as 4th seed, before making to the 2nd round in 2011 (but loosing there, again as higher seed).
What is more, each team have 3 centers covering positions from C to SF, so there will be a lot of big dudes on the court. What separates Clippers and Suns - perimeter. While team from Arizona have Michael Carter-Williams, whos skills and athleticism is obviously fading away, and Terrell Brandon is still developing, Los Angeles relies on Dwyane Wade and Jason Williams, who are both in their prime. I see this as decisive factor.
My prediction: Clippers 4:2 Suns
Dallas Mavericks - Utah Jazz
(regular season 3:1)
Despite very mediocre performance in the regular season, I do think both teams have enough talent to go all the way to league finals. But one of them will drop here.
Mavs have more depth, while Jazz - star power. And the biggest star in the series is definitely All-League Frist Team SF Shawn Marion, averaging 33 and 9. However, funny thing, the only game Jazz won against Mavericks in the regular season was when Marion was not playing due to injury.
Also, do not let slow Jazz offence fool you, they attack quite efficiently, especially in the perimeter. On the other hand, Utah have some problems with defence (5th worst result in both oFG% and o3P%) which can successfully be exploited by Dallas.
Important note - Dallas main center Tiago Splitter is out for series and this could change the final outcome.
My prediction: Mavericks 3:4 Jazz
Minnesota Timberwolves - Golden State Warriors
(regular season 1:3)
If we check regular season standings and some main team statistics, we would say yeah, Timberwolves should proceed to the next round. But why then GSW was able to beat T-Wolves three times this season already? Last years playoffs already confirmed how little regular season records means, however, lets make a little research of how these two teams are matched against each other.
Iverson - Petrovic produces almost 50 PPG, meanwhile Nightingale - Nick Young backcourt is faulty defensively. As well as their backup Jared Jordan. On the other side of the court, GSW have good defenders like former DPOY Soprano, McDyess, and of course AI. Their biggest "hole" is Jim Jackson at SF, however, luckily for Warriors, he is matched against extremely passive in offence Kevin Garnett Jr.
So despite Minnesota being higher seed, I can see Iverson and Soprano taking their team to the Western semi-finals.
My prediction: Timberwolves 2:4 Warriors
Sacramento Kings - Seattle Sonics
(regular season 2:2)
Two solid, but a bit different teams here. Sonics relies mostly on their decent defensive numbers, as well as Giannis and David West when attacking. West, by the way, is the only non-guard player who managed to get Player of the Week award this season. Sonics is also the most aggressive team with 34.8 Free Throws per game.
Kings offence is better at creating quality shots (.466% FG) and more spread. However, SF position stands out here as well, since Josh Howard is having a season of his life, averaging over 24 PPG - and that is, surprisingly, more than his much better paid opponent Antetokounmpo.
This one can go either way. But since all 4 regular season duels between Seattle and Sacramento were won by home team, this advantage by Kings could be the critical one.
My prediction: Kings 4:2 Sonics